# Gacha Game Odds and Pity: How RAID, Genshin and Star Rail Compare

*Published:* 2026-11-04
*Author:* Steven Jacob

💡 The short answer

- **Genshin Impact**A 5-star character within 90 wishes, and the featured one within 180 from a fresh count.
- **Honkai: Star Rail**0.600% base rate, 1.600% consolidated, and a 5-star character within 90 Warps.
- **RAID: Shadow Legends**Mercy raises your odds per shard type after a threshold, but the counter stays hidden.
- **Before you spend**Pick one target, write down your count, and set a cash limit.





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A guarantee only covers *the outcome it names*.

Three goals, three different sets of rules. Work out which one you are chasing before you read any percentage.

Any 5-star

The rarity ceiling

90 pulls on Genshin and Star Rail character banners; rising Mercy odds in RAID.

One character

The featured rule

Documented for Genshin’s character banner: up to 180 wishes from a fresh count.

A better team

No ceiling at all

No guarantee covers this. A free character might do the job without a single pull.




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A gacha game being free to download tells you very little about what its random character draws will cost, or how predictable they are. The randomness is what matters. What are the actual odds of the character you want? Is there a guarantee if luck goes against you? Does it carry over between banners? And can you find all this out before you spend, or only once you are inside the game?

Apple’s App Store and Google Play both require games to disclose the odds of purchasable random items. In the UK, Ukie’s industry principles ask for clear probabilities and for technological controls that stop under-18s buying loot boxes without a parent’s consent or knowledge. Those are industry principles, not a legal ban. Belgium’s Gaming Commission went further and found that paid loot boxes in three games it examined (FIFA 18, Overwatch and Counter-Strike: Global Offensive) broke gambling law. That finding is not a universal rule for every game or every country.

The three systems below show why a headline rarity percentage is only part of the rulebook. RAID runs separate Mercy counters, while Genshin and Star Rail publish rarity ceilings for their character banners. What you can usefully compare is the outcome each rule actually covers.

This compares published rules. It is not a league table of the most generous games. A game can disclose its odds clearly and still make a particular character expensive to get, and a useful free character can cut how much you need to summon at all. Treat the rulebook and the experience of playing without paying as two separate questions.

So start from a target: any high-rarity character, one featured character, or an upgrade to a team you already have. Those are different outcomes, and a guarantee that covers the first may not cover the other two.

What to check in the summoning rules
------------------------------------

Five things a fair rulebook tells you

- **Published base odds** for each rarity, visible before you pull.
- **A hard pity:** a guaranteed top-rarity result within a set number of pulls.
- **Soft pity or rising odds** that improve your chances as you near the guarantee.
- **Carry-over:** pity counts that don’t reset when a banner ends.
- **A visible counter,** so you know where you stand.





These features explain a system. They don’t measure how generous its free rewards are, or how easily a free player can get a particular character.

Keep three numbers apart when you read a banner. The base rate is the stated chance before any guarantee kicks in. A consolidated rate folds those guarantee effects in across the whole system, so it is not your personal chance on the next pull. The guarantee is the longest you can be made to wait for the named result under that banner’s rules. You need all three to see what a headline percentage leaves out.

Also read the noun after “guaranteed”. A guaranteed 5-star, a promotional 5-star and the exact character you picked are three different promises. Equipment banners, standard pools and limited character banners shouldn’t be lumped into one reassuring pity number either.

RAID: Shadow Legends: rising odds per shard type
------------------------------------------------

RAID: Shadow Legends is a [collection RPG](https://plarium.com/en/games/genre/rpg-games/) whose Mercy system raises your summoning odds once you pass a threshold, with separate counters for different shard types and rarities. Ancient and Void Shards track Epic and Legendary results separately. Plarium’s own example: after 20 Void Shards without an Epic Champion, the Epic chance goes up by 2% with each further shard until an Epic drops. The default odds sit in the summoning portal, behind its “i” button. The [official Mercy explanation](https://raid-support.plarium.com/hc/en-us/articles/4415727112722-Mercy-system) covers how the counters work and when they reset.

![RAID: Shadow Legends Champion collection and equipment screen on PC](https://bestforandroid.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/raid-shadow-legends-champion-collection.jpg)RAID’s Champion collection and equipment screen. Image: Plarium, via Steam. It does not show Mercy odds. [Source](https://store.steampowered.com/app/2333480/)

**Strength:** separate Mercy counters for each shard type and rarity. **Watch for:** Plarium says these counters are not shown in the game. Keep your own record if you want one; third-party trackers are independent of Plarium.

How the increase adds up matters. Plarium calls it additive, not multiplicative: its own example takes an 8% chance up by 2% to 10%, not to 8% times 1.02. Put another way, each step adds two percentage points. Plarium also says a Legendary from a Sacred Shard does not touch your Ancient Shard Mercy counter, so a record that lumps every shard you open into one total will mislead you.

A rarity guarantee is still not a guarantee of one named Champion. Before you treat an event as a shortcut, read its actual summoning conditions next to the shard’s default odds and Mercy rules. Don’t carry a rule over from one shard type to another, and don’t assume a rate-up headline means your target is guaranteed. ([Plarium](https://raid-support.plarium.com/hc/en-us/articles/4415727112722-Mercy-system))

Genshin Impact: a documented character guarantee
------------------------------------------------

HoYoverse’s help centre promises a 5-star character within 90 Character Event Wishes and a 5-star weapon within 80 Weapon Event Wishes. If a character-event 5-star turns out not to be the featured character, the next one is guaranteed to be. Capturing Radiance also applies: HoYoverse puts the consolidated chance that a 5-star character is the promotional one at 55.000%, with that mechanic included. The current banner’s in-game Details page has its exact rules.

**Strength:** a stated ceiling for a character-event 5-star. **Watch for:** getting any 5-star is not the same as getting the featured character, and weapon-selection rules work separately.

For a cautious saving target, the character rules allow up to 180 wishes from a fresh count with no featured guarantee in hand: as many as 90 for the first 5-star, then up to 90 more if that one isn’t featured. That is a ceiling worked out from the published rules. It isn’t an average spend, and it doesn’t predict your next result.

![Chart of Genshin Impact Character Event Wish maximums: a 5-star within 90 wishes and the featured 5-star within 180](https://bestforandroid.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/genshin-wish-guarantee-chart.jpg)Worst-case ceilings under Genshin Impact’s Character Event Wish rules: a 5-star character within 90 wishes, and the featured 5-star within up to 180 wishes from a fresh count without the featured guarantee. These are ceilings, not average results, spending estimates or a fairness ranking; banner type and existing guarantee progress change them. Source: HoYoverse support. [Source](https://support.hoyoverse.com/hc/en-us/articles/50333940684953-How-does-the-Wish-guarantee-system-work)

Capturing Radiance does not make every wish a 55% shot at the featured character. The 55.000% figure applies once a 5-star character has already dropped, and describes how often that 5-star is the promotional one. Whether you get a 5-star at all is a separate stage of the draw.

HoYoverse says the two Character Event Wish banners share their pity count and guarantee status, so your current count and guarantee are worth knowing before you decide where to save. Note them down before you look at weapon wishes, whose 80-wish rarity ceiling on its own says nothing about getting one particular weapon. ([HoYoverse](https://support.hoyoverse.com/hc/en-us/articles/50333940684953-How-does-the-Wish-guarantee-system-work); [HoYoverse 2](https://www.hoyolab.com/article/32168979))

![Genshin Impact official character artwork from the HoYoverse website](https://bestforandroid.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/genshin-impact-official-character-artwork.jpg)Genshin Impact official character artwork. Image: HoYoverse; the artwork does not show banner odds. [Source](https://genshin.hoyoverse.com/en/home)

Honkai: Star Rail: odds published in full
-----------------------------------------

HoYoverse’s help centre lists a 0.600% base rate for a 5-star character on the Character Event Warp, and a 1.600% consolidated rate once the guarantee is counted. A 5-star character is guaranteed within 90 Warps. Other Warp types have their own rates and counters; the Light Cone Event Warp, for one, guarantees a 5-star Light Cone within 80. Check the selected banner’s View Details screen.

**Strength:** clear overall odds that include the effect of the guarantee.

The consolidated rate sums up a system that includes guarantees. It doesn’t replace knowing your own banner and count. For planning, the 90-Warp ceiling answers a different question from the 0.600% base rate: the percentage describes chance, and the ceiling caps how long that result can stay away. Neither number tells you on its own whether the 5-star you get will be the featured character.

Ten pulls don’t create a 5-star guarantee just because you repeated a low-odds draw, either. The published limit for a Character Event 5-star is 90. If your record shows 70 Warps in a row on that banner type without one, you need at most 20 more for that rarity, as long as the count hasn’t reset. That is arithmetic on the rule, not a result from a test account.

Character Event, Light Cone Event and Regular Warps each keep an independent counter. Pulling on a Light Cone banner does nothing for your Character Event guarantee. If you are saving free currency, switching between categories spreads your progress across several goals instead of bringing one character closer. ([HoYoverse](https://support.hoyoverse.com/hc/en-us/articles/50913710696217-How-does-the-pity-system-work-for-different-banners-and-reruns))

![Honkai: Star Rail battle scene still from the PlayStation store page](https://bestforandroid.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/honkai-star-rail-battle-still.jpg)Honkai: Star Rail battle still. Image: HoYoverse, via PlayStation; no Warp odds are shown. [Source](https://www.playstation.com/en-us/games/honkai-star-rail/)

The common gaps
---------------

Across the genre, these are the things to check before you spend:

Where the rulebook goes quiet

- **Hidden counters.** Several games, RAID included, don’t show your pity progress in the game.
- **Resetting pity.** Some games reset counts between banners. Others carry them over.
- **Odds only in the game.** Publishers have to show odds before you buy, but not all of them publish odds on the web where you can compare.
- **Several currencies.** Turning real money into two or three in-game currencies makes it harder to know what one pull costs.





A simple saving example shows the limits. Say you have 50 Character Event Warps saved and expect to earn 20 more before the banner ends. From a fresh count, 70 falls short of Star Rail’s 90-Warp ceiling. If instead you already have 70 Warps in a row without a 5-star and 20 saved, those 20 cover what is left of the ceiling, provided the count hasn’t reset. Neither case gives you a featured-character guarantee, and neither is a forecast of free rewards.

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How far is your *next 5-star*, at worst?

Pick a banner and type the pulls since your last 5-star. The numbers come straight from the published ceilings above, so they are worst cases, not predictions.

Pulls since last 5-star

BannerGenshin characterGenshin weaponStar Rail characterStar Rail Light Cone



 My last Genshin character 5-star was not the featured one

- Most pulls to any 5-starThe published rarity ceiling, minus your count.90
- Most pulls to the featured characterOnly where the publisher documents a featured guarantee.180

Worst case on the Genshin character banner: 90 more pulls for any 5-star, then up to 90 more if it is not the featured one.

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  })();For a paid budget, work out the cash you would actually need to add after using what you have saved, then hold that against your spending limit. Bundles, first-purchase bonuses and currency left over from earlier purchases all change the conversion. A single price per character would hide those differences, so this comparison doesn’t invent one.

Before you top up

- Treat money already spent as spent. Being close to a guarantee doesn’t mean you have to keep going today, and a banner deadline doesn’t change what you can afford. If the outcome you want sits beyond your limit, waiting or picking a different goal is a complete plan, not a failed pull session.





How the three compare
---------------------

GameGuarantee typePublished whereCounter visible in gameRAID: Shadow LegendsRising odds per shard and rarity (Mercy)Official support page and in-game portalNoGenshin Impact90 character / 80 weapon; featured rules differOfficial help centreNot statedHonkai: Star RailCharacter Event: 90; 1.600% consolidatedOfficial odds pageNot statedHow to play gacha games without regret
--------------------------------------

Five habits that keep spending a choice

- **Read the pity rules** before your first pull.
- **Decide what you’re saving for** and skip the banners you don’t need.
- **Use purchase controls.** Turn on purchase verification or block in-app purchases where your phone supports it, and keep a personal spending limit as well.
- **Treat spending as entertainment** you won’t get back, not an investment.
- **Talk to someone** if spending stops feeling like a choice. In the UK, GamCare offers free support.





Gacha odds and pity FAQs
------------------------

### What does pity mean in a gacha game?

Pity is a guarantee that caps your bad luck. A hard pity promises a top-rarity result within a set number of pulls, such as 90 on Genshin Impact and Honkai: Star Rail character banners. Some games, RAID among them, raise the odds step by step after a threshold instead.

### Do Genshin’s two character banners share pity?

Yes. HoYoverse says the two Character Event Wish banners share a pity count and guarantee status. Weapon wishes keep their own count, with a 5-star weapon within 80.

### Can you see your Mercy counter in RAID: Shadow Legends?

No. Plarium says the Mercy counter is internal and not shown in the game, so keep your own record per shard type and rarity if you want to track it.

### What is the difference between a base rate and a consolidated rate?

The base rate is the chance on a single pull before any guarantee. The consolidated rate averages the guarantee in across the whole system, which is why Star Rail lists 0.600% base and 1.600% consolidated for a 5-star character.

### Are loot boxes legal?

It depends on the country. Apple and Google require games to disclose loot box odds, the UK relies on industry principles rather than a ban, and Belgium’s Gaming Commission found paid loot boxes in three games broke its gambling law.





Where the information comes from
--------------------------------

We compared official publisher explanations and banner-detail guidance current at the time of writing. The worked examples are arithmetic on those rules, not recorded pulls, simulations or independent tests of drop rates. The store-policy and regulatory references explain what has to be disclosed; they don’t show that a particular game is affordable or suitable for a particular player. If an event uses different conditions, the live banner details win.

Featured image: Genshin Impact’s Skirk. Image: HoYoverse, from its PlayStation Blog update; no draw odds are shown. [Source](https://blog.playstation.com/2025/06/06/genshin-impact-version-5-7-arrives-with-skirk-on-june-18/)

Additional primary sources: [developer.apple.com](https://developer.apple.com/app-store/review/guidelines/) · [support.google.com](https://support.google.com/googleplay/android-developer/answer/9858738) · [Ukie](https://ukie.org.uk/news/new-loot-box-principles-agreed-by-industry) · [koengeens.be](https://www.koengeens.be/news/2018/04/25/loot-boxen-in-drie-videogames-in-strijd-met-kansspelwetgeving) · [HoYoverse](https://support.hoyoverse.com/hc/en-us/articles/50333940684953-How-does-the-Wish-guarantee-system-work) · [HoYoverse 2](https://www.hoyolab.com/article/32168979) · [HoYoverse 3](https://support.hoyoverse.com/hc/en-us/articles/50913710696217-How-does-the-pity-system-work-for-different-banners-and-reruns) · [Steam announcement](https://steamcommunity.com/app/2333480/allnews/) · [RAID](https://plarium.com/en/game/raid-shadow-legends/) · [support.apple.com](https://support.apple.com/en-ie/102470)

✅ What to remember

- **Name the target**Any 5-star, one featured character and a better team are three different goals.
- **Read the noun**A rarity ceiling is not a featured guarantee.
- **Track your count**RAID hides it; Genshin and Star Rail counters depend on banner type.
- **Cap the cash**Set the limit before the banner, and turn on Google Play’s [purchase verification](https://support.google.com/googleplay/answer/1626831).
- **Ask for help**If spending stops feeling like a choice, [GamCare](https://www.gamcare.org.uk/get-support/) offers free support in the UK.